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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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AGE GROUP S5-59 50-51 45- 10-44 36-39 30-34 25-29 20-24
Potential Primary and Lower Secondary School Population
10,000       20,000       30,000       40.000       50,000       60.000
Potttnlial Teacherst persons with 4 years' secondary education or
Figure 3. Potential teaching force compared with potential primary and lower secondary school population (ages 5 to 14) in a hypothetical high-fertility country experiencing steady, and recently accelerating, educational development.
teaching ages (20 to 59) who have completed 4 years of secondary education is well below the number who will later do so in the 10 to 14 age group alone. After 10 or 15 years, then, there will be enough extra secondary graduates available to permit a very large expansion of the teaching force. (We are ignoring cost considerations for the moment, as well as the problems entailed in rapidly expanding teacher training facilities.)
But how about the teacher supply problem in the immediate future? Will it, in fact, prove possible to expand enrollment rates at the secondary level as rapidly as postulated? In examining this question, we might note that if all children aged 5 to 14 were to be placed in school immediately, there would be 11.3 such children to every potential teacher (person with 4 years' secondary education). Most of those with 4 years' secondary education, however, will not be available for teaching, representing as they do the source from which a variety of professional, technical, managerial, and clerical positions must be filled. In fact, as shown in Table 7, typically only between one out of three and one out of twelve persons who have reached or surpassed this level ofohorts from which potential teachers must b substantially smaller and much more poorly educated. A sim illustrate the point. Figure 3 is based on population data froi country with high fertility and moderate mortality, whose trends are a composite of those in developing countries fo: available.t It is striking that the total number of persons